🏖️ Kanaha Wind Report

📡 Data Sources & Sensors

The forecast system ingests data from 10 independent sources covering wind, waves, tides, rain, clouds, and North Pacific storm tracking. Each source feeds specific prediction algorithms and equipment decisions.

ℹ️ Correlation strategy: No single source is trusted alone. Wind predictions cross-reference WeatherFlow live sensors, iK-TRRM forecast model, NDBC buoy synoptic signals, and isthmus thermal stations. Disagreement between sources triggers confidence downgrades.


1. WeatherFlow / iKitesurf

Gold-standard live wind sensor network. Authenticated via Playwright browser automation against the iKitesurf web app.

Stations

Station ID Role
Kanaha166192Primary spot — current avg/gust, thermal spread baseline
Kahului Airport643Thermal spread pair (Kanaha − Airport = thermal indicator)
Maalaea642710Venturi ratio (Maalaea / Kanaha)
Kahului Harbor4349Secondary wind reference

API Endpoint

getSpotDetailSetByList  (authenticated iKitesurf API)

Feeds

  • Current wind average & gust for equipment sizing
  • Thermal spread calculation (Kanaha − Airport; >3 kts = thermal active)
  • Venturi ratio (Maalaea / Kanaha; >0.8 = venturi active)
  • Evening retention for synoptic base estimation
→ iKitesurf website

2. iK-TRRM Premium Forecast Model

iKitesurf's proprietary hourly wind forecast model. Extracted from the forecast graph via authenticated Playwright scraping. 48-hour horizon.

What it provides

  • Hourly wind speed predictions (48h ahead)
  • Wind direction per hour
  • Graph-derived forecast curve for session window planning

API Endpoint

iKitesurf forecast graph data  (authenticated, Playwright-scraped)

Feeds

  • Per-hour wind predictions within session windows
  • Taper prediction array (wind decay forecast)
  • Equipment recommendation timing per 2h block
→ iKitesurf website

3. NDBC Buoys

NOAA's National Data Buoy Center. Three tiers of buoys serve different purposes: local wave truth, far-field synoptic wind indicators, and North Pacific storm tracking.

Local Buoys

Buoy ID Role
Pauwela51205Closest to Kanaha — wave truth + SST
Mokapu51202Secondary local reference

Far-Field Upwind Buoys (Synoptic Trade Indicators)

Buoy ID Role
SE Hawaii51004Primary synoptic trade indicator
SW Hawaii51002Synoptic cross-reference
N Hawaii51000Trades taper here first
NW Hawaii51001Groundswell early warning (NOT for wind)

North Pacific Storm Tracking

Buoy ID Location
Gulf of Alaska46001Primary storm generation zone
Central Bering Sea46035Deep North Pacific storms
South Kodiak46066Alaska storm runoff

API Endpoints

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/{id}.txt      (standard obs)
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/{id}.spec     (spectral data)

Feeds

  • Synoptic base estimation (median of far-field buoy winds)
  • Swell decomposition (windswell vs groundswell via spectral data)
  • Groundswell early warning from NW buoy + North Pacific buoys
  • Sea surface temperature (Pauwela → thermal model)
→ NDBC official site

4. NOAA Tides

CO-OPS tide predictions and observations for mast selection and reef depth calculation.

Station

StationKahului Harbor
ID1615680

API Endpoint

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/datagetter

Feeds

  • Reef depth calculation: 0.9m + (tide_ft × 0.3048)
  • Mast selection per session window (72cm–100cm based on depth)
  • Low-tide safety warnings
→ CO-OPS Kahului Harbor station

5. NWS / api.weather.gov

National Weather Service gridpoint data for Kanaha. Provides hourly forecast fields, active alerts, and surf discussion products.

Grid Reference

HFO/213,126 (Honolulu Forecast Office)

Endpoints

/gridpoints/HFO/213,126/forecast/hourly   (hourly forecast)
/gridpoints/HFO/213,126/forecast           (7-day narrative)
/gridpoints/HFO/213,126                    (gridpoint raw data)
/alerts/active                             (active warnings)
/products?type=SRF&location=HFO            (surf forecast discussion)

What it provides

  • Hourly probability of precipitation (PoP)
  • Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)
  • Sky cover percentage
  • Wind speed and direction forecast
  • Active weather warnings and advisories
  • Surf heights from SRF product

Feeds

  • Dual-source PoP averaging (NWS + Open-Meteo)
  • Rain tier classification
  • Triage mode activation on severe weather
  • Wind forecast cross-reference
→ NWS gridpoint data

6. Open-Meteo Atmosphere

Open-source weather API providing high-resolution hourly atmospheric data. The per-hour cloud cover forecast from Open-Meteo is the single biggest prediction improvement in the system — cloud cover is the #1 uncertainty for thermal wind.

API Endpoint

https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast

What it provides

  • pressure_msl — sea level pressure
  • precipitation, precipitation_probability, rain, showers
  • cloudcover (total, low, mid, high)
  • temperature, dewpoint
  • CAPE — convective available potential energy
  • visibility, weathercode (WMO codes)

Feeds

  • Per-hour cloud forecast → thermal modifier (clouds kill thermal wind)
  • Shower detection via WMO weathercode
  • Dual-source precipitation probability (averaged with NWS)
  • Pressure trends for synoptic pattern analysis

⚡ Key insight: Cloud cover is the #1 prediction uncertainty for thermal-driven wind at Kanaha. Overcast skies can suppress the isthmus thermal effect entirely, turning an expected 18 kt afternoon into a 12 kt disappointment. Open-Meteo's per-hour cloud forecast is the most important single field for accuracy.

→ Open-Meteo documentation

7. Open-Meteo Marine

Marine-specific forecast API providing wave data at Kanaha plus North Pacific storm generation zone monitoring at 5 waypoints.

API Endpoint

https://marine-api.open-meteo.com/v1/marine

Kanaha Point Data

  • wave_height, wave_period
  • swell_wave_height, swell_wave_period, swell_wave_direction

North Pacific Storm Waypoints

Waypoint Coordinates
Gulf of Alaska56°N / -148°
Mid-Pacific40°N / -155°
Western Pacific47°N / -175°
Central North50°N / -160°
Far West45°N / 175°

Feeds

  • 7-day swell forecast at Pauwela
  • North Pacific storm generation zone monitoring
  • Groundswell early warning (height + period → ETA via group velocity)
→ Open-Meteo Marine docs

8. NOAA MRMS Radar

Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor real-time radar reflectivity. Only invoked when rain_risk >= moderate to avoid unnecessary API calls.

API Endpoints

https://mapservices.weather.noaa.gov/eventdriven/rest/services/
  radar/radar_base_reflectivity/MapServer

  /identify  — dBZ at Kanaha point (ArcGIS REST)
  /export    — Maui-area PNG reflectivity map

What it provides

  • Real-time precipitation intensity (dBZ at Kanaha)
  • Nearby storm cell detection
  • Rain rate via Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship: R = (Z/200)^(1/1.6)

Feeds

  • Rain confirmation during active precipitation
  • Storm cell proximity warnings
  • Triage mode radar context

ℹ️ Conditional invocation: MRMS is only queried when rain risk is moderate or higher. This conserves API calls and avoids noise from clear-sky radar returns.

→ NOAA MRMS project page

9. Isthmus Thermal Stations

7 WeatherFlow stations spanning the Maui isthmus, combined into a weighted average for heat index. Captures the thermal gradient that drives afternoon wind acceleration at Kanaha.

Stations & Weights

Station ID Weight
Hansen Rd6456001.5
Kahului Airport6431.2
Haleakala Hwy6455981.0
Veterans Hwy6456040.8
Upper Division Rd6456020.8
Haleakala Hwy 26815030.7
Maalaea6427100.7

Feeds

  • Weighted average isthmus heat index
  • Thermal drive strength (land-sea temperature differential)
  • Regime classification input
  • Synoptic base estimation (evening readings)

10. Upolu Airport Upwind

Two WeatherFlow stations at Upolu Point on the Big Island, approximately 100 miles upwind (NE) of Kanaha. Mostly synoptic signal — no thermal contamination. Provides 1-2 hour lead time for trade wind changes.

Stations

Upolu 1188392
Upolu 2681478

Feeds

  • Synoptic base confirmation (clean trade wind signal)
  • Trade wind trend detection (1-2h lead time)
  • Wind prediction model input

ℹ️ Why Upolu matters: Because Upolu is ~100 miles directly upwind with no thermal interference, its wind reading is a clean synoptic signal. If Upolu reads 18 kts NE but Kanaha reads 12 kts at 10am, you know synoptic support is strong and the thermal boost will add to a solid base — expect a good afternoon.