📡 Data Sources & Sensors
The forecast system ingests data from 10 independent sources covering wind, waves, tides, rain, clouds, and North Pacific storm tracking. Each source feeds specific prediction algorithms and equipment decisions.
ℹ️ Correlation strategy: No single source is trusted alone. Wind predictions cross-reference WeatherFlow live sensors, iK-TRRM forecast model, NDBC buoy synoptic signals, and isthmus thermal stations. Disagreement between sources triggers confidence downgrades.
1. WeatherFlow / iKitesurf
Gold-standard live wind sensor network. Authenticated via Playwright browser automation against the iKitesurf web app.
Stations
| Station | ID | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Kanaha | 166192 | Primary spot — current avg/gust, thermal spread baseline |
| Kahului Airport | 643 | Thermal spread pair (Kanaha − Airport = thermal indicator) |
| Maalaea | 642710 | Venturi ratio (Maalaea / Kanaha) |
| Kahului Harbor | 4349 | Secondary wind reference |
API Endpoint
getSpotDetailSetByList (authenticated iKitesurf API) Feeds
- Current wind average & gust for equipment sizing
- Thermal spread calculation (Kanaha − Airport; >3 kts = thermal active)
- Venturi ratio (Maalaea / Kanaha; >0.8 = venturi active)
- Evening retention for synoptic base estimation
2. iK-TRRM Premium Forecast Model
iKitesurf's proprietary hourly wind forecast model. Extracted from the forecast graph via authenticated Playwright scraping. 48-hour horizon.
What it provides
- Hourly wind speed predictions (48h ahead)
- Wind direction per hour
- Graph-derived forecast curve for session window planning
API Endpoint
iKitesurf forecast graph data (authenticated, Playwright-scraped) Feeds
- Per-hour wind predictions within session windows
- Taper prediction array (wind decay forecast)
- Equipment recommendation timing per 2h block
3. NDBC Buoys
NOAA's National Data Buoy Center. Three tiers of buoys serve different purposes: local wave truth, far-field synoptic wind indicators, and North Pacific storm tracking.
Local Buoys
| Buoy | ID | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Pauwela | 51205 | Closest to Kanaha — wave truth + SST |
| Mokapu | 51202 | Secondary local reference |
Far-Field Upwind Buoys (Synoptic Trade Indicators)
| Buoy | ID | Role |
|---|---|---|
| SE Hawaii | 51004 | Primary synoptic trade indicator |
| SW Hawaii | 51002 | Synoptic cross-reference |
| N Hawaii | 51000 | Trades taper here first |
| NW Hawaii | 51001 | Groundswell early warning (NOT for wind) |
North Pacific Storm Tracking
| Buoy | ID | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Gulf of Alaska | 46001 | Primary storm generation zone |
| Central Bering Sea | 46035 | Deep North Pacific storms |
| South Kodiak | 46066 | Alaska storm runoff |
API Endpoints
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/{id}.txt (standard obs)
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/{id}.spec (spectral data) Feeds
- Synoptic base estimation (median of far-field buoy winds)
- Swell decomposition (windswell vs groundswell via spectral data)
- Groundswell early warning from NW buoy + North Pacific buoys
- Sea surface temperature (Pauwela → thermal model)
4. NOAA Tides
CO-OPS tide predictions and observations for mast selection and reef depth calculation.
Station
| Station | Kahului Harbor |
| ID | 1615680 |
API Endpoint
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/datagetter Feeds
- Reef depth calculation:
0.9m + (tide_ft × 0.3048) - Mast selection per session window (72cm–100cm based on depth)
- Low-tide safety warnings
5. NWS / api.weather.gov
National Weather Service gridpoint data for Kanaha. Provides hourly forecast fields, active alerts, and surf discussion products.
Grid Reference
HFO/213,126 (Honolulu Forecast Office)
Endpoints
/gridpoints/HFO/213,126/forecast/hourly (hourly forecast)
/gridpoints/HFO/213,126/forecast (7-day narrative)
/gridpoints/HFO/213,126 (gridpoint raw data)
/alerts/active (active warnings)
/products?type=SRF&location=HFO (surf forecast discussion) What it provides
- Hourly probability of precipitation (PoP)
- Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)
- Sky cover percentage
- Wind speed and direction forecast
- Active weather warnings and advisories
- Surf heights from SRF product
Feeds
- Dual-source PoP averaging (NWS + Open-Meteo)
- Rain tier classification
- Triage mode activation on severe weather
- Wind forecast cross-reference
6. Open-Meteo Atmosphere
Open-source weather API providing high-resolution hourly atmospheric data. The per-hour cloud cover forecast from Open-Meteo is the single biggest prediction improvement in the system — cloud cover is the #1 uncertainty for thermal wind.
API Endpoint
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast What it provides
pressure_msl— sea level pressureprecipitation,precipitation_probability,rain,showerscloudcover(total, low, mid, high)temperature,dewpointCAPE— convective available potential energyvisibility,weathercode(WMO codes)
Feeds
- Per-hour cloud forecast → thermal modifier (clouds kill thermal wind)
- Shower detection via WMO weathercode
- Dual-source precipitation probability (averaged with NWS)
- Pressure trends for synoptic pattern analysis
⚡ Key insight: Cloud cover is the #1 prediction uncertainty for thermal-driven wind at Kanaha. Overcast skies can suppress the isthmus thermal effect entirely, turning an expected 18 kt afternoon into a 12 kt disappointment. Open-Meteo's per-hour cloud forecast is the most important single field for accuracy.
7. Open-Meteo Marine
Marine-specific forecast API providing wave data at Kanaha plus North Pacific storm generation zone monitoring at 5 waypoints.
API Endpoint
https://marine-api.open-meteo.com/v1/marine Kanaha Point Data
wave_height,wave_periodswell_wave_height,swell_wave_period,swell_wave_direction
North Pacific Storm Waypoints
| Waypoint | Coordinates |
|---|---|
| Gulf of Alaska | 56°N / -148° |
| Mid-Pacific | 40°N / -155° |
| Western Pacific | 47°N / -175° |
| Central North | 50°N / -160° |
| Far West | 45°N / 175° |
Feeds
- 7-day swell forecast at Pauwela
- North Pacific storm generation zone monitoring
- Groundswell early warning (height + period → ETA via group velocity)
8. NOAA MRMS Radar
Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor real-time radar reflectivity. Only invoked when rain_risk >= moderate to avoid unnecessary API calls.
API Endpoints
https://mapservices.weather.noaa.gov/eventdriven/rest/services/
radar/radar_base_reflectivity/MapServer
/identify — dBZ at Kanaha point (ArcGIS REST)
/export — Maui-area PNG reflectivity map What it provides
- Real-time precipitation intensity (dBZ at Kanaha)
- Nearby storm cell detection
- Rain rate via Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship:
R = (Z/200)^(1/1.6)
Feeds
- Rain confirmation during active precipitation
- Storm cell proximity warnings
- Triage mode radar context
ℹ️ Conditional invocation: MRMS is only queried when rain risk is moderate or higher. This conserves API calls and avoids noise from clear-sky radar returns.
9. Isthmus Thermal Stations
7 WeatherFlow stations spanning the Maui isthmus, combined into a weighted average for heat index. Captures the thermal gradient that drives afternoon wind acceleration at Kanaha.
Stations & Weights
| Station | ID | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Hansen Rd | 645600 | 1.5 |
| Kahului Airport | 643 | 1.2 |
| Haleakala Hwy | 645598 | 1.0 |
| Veterans Hwy | 645604 | 0.8 |
| Upper Division Rd | 645602 | 0.8 |
| Haleakala Hwy 2 | 681503 | 0.7 |
| Maalaea | 642710 | 0.7 |
Feeds
- Weighted average isthmus heat index
- Thermal drive strength (land-sea temperature differential)
- Regime classification input
- Synoptic base estimation (evening readings)
10. Upolu Airport Upwind
Two WeatherFlow stations at Upolu Point on the Big Island, approximately 100 miles upwind (NE) of Kanaha. Mostly synoptic signal — no thermal contamination. Provides 1-2 hour lead time for trade wind changes.
Stations
| Upolu 1 | 188392 |
| Upolu 2 | 681478 |
Feeds
- Synoptic base confirmation (clean trade wind signal)
- Trade wind trend detection (1-2h lead time)
- Wind prediction model input
ℹ️ Why Upolu matters: Because Upolu is ~100 miles directly upwind with no thermal interference, its wind reading is a clean synoptic signal. If Upolu reads 18 kts NE but Kanaha reads 12 kts at 10am, you know synoptic support is strong and the thermal boost will add to a solid base — expect a good afternoon.