March 11, 2026 Preview β π΄ NO-GO
π WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11 β 12:00-16:00 HST οΏ½οΏ½ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
π¨ ALERTS Flood Watch β Maui County β expires 7:00 AM Thursday
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ VERDICT: π΄ NO-GO β thunderstorms & heavy rain
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WIND Now: 6.8kts NE / gust 8kts (1.18x) Regime: Calm β no trades and no thermal Thermal: Ξ1.6Β°C β moderate | Cloud: forecast 100% tomorrow
iK-TRRM session window: 12:00 13.8kts / g20kts S cloud 66% 13:00 14.2kts / g21kts S cloud 68% 14:00 14.2kts / g21kts SSW cloud 75% 15:00 14.0kts / g20kts S cloud 70% 16:00 13.2kts / g20kts SSW cloud 67%
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WAVES Windswell: 4.9ft @ 9.1s ENE Groundswell: 1.3ft @ 10.5s NE Surfline: 2-3ft (Thigh to stomach) Foil rating: NO-GO
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ GEAR Session cancelled β stay home Tide during session: 0.08-0.16m π Last Quarter (45%) β Rise: 1:19 / Set: 12:06 Neap tides β smaller range
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3-DAY
Wed 11th π΄ 14kts π§
Thu 12th π΄ 11kts π§
Fri 13th π‘ TBD π¦
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WATCH Kona storm approaching β major low pressure system dropping 18.6 hPa over next 5 days Southerly kona winds replacing trades tomorrow New NW groundswell detected at outer buoys (2.8m @ 51001) β arrival imminent
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Tomorrowβs window shows 14kts southerly wind β sufficient for kiting in normal conditions. However, this is kona storm wind, not trades. With 70-85% rain probability throughout the session window, thunderstorms developing, and 2.7mm QPF expected, conditions are unsafe. The Special Weather Statement specifically warns of damaging winds and possible hail with these storms.
This isnβt about getting wet β itβs about lightning risk and severe gusts. Stay off the water during active thunderstorms.
The approaching low pressure system has already killed tonightβs trades (6.8kts calm). Tomorrow brings the stormβs leading edge with southerly flow before heavier rain arrives Thursday (10.9mm forecast).
Next potential session: Friday afternoon if the storm clears as forecast.