March 11, 2026 Live β π‘ MARGINAL
π WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11 β 12:00-16:00 HST βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
π¨ ALERTS Flood Watch β Maui County β expires 5:15pm today
π© WIND SHADOW WARNING Kanaha 185Β° vs upwind 98Β°ENE β 87Β° isthmus rotation. Extreme shadow from shoreline trees, 300-700m body drag required.
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ VERDICT: π‘ MARGINAL β Rain triage mode (storm approaching)
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WIND Now: 7.7kts S / gust 11.8kts (1.53x) Regime: Calm conditions β no trades, no thermal Thermal: Ξ-2.2Β°C β none | Cloud: 100% low / 100% total
iK-TRRM session window: 12:00 9.3kts / g16.3kts SSW cloud 77% 13:00 10.7kts / g19.8kts S cloud 80% 14:00 13kts / g21kts SSW cloud 71% 15:00 13.2kts / g22kts SSW cloud 71% 16:00 13.4kts / g20.6kts S cloud 69%
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WAVES Windswell: 4.6ft @ 9.9s NE Groundswell: 1.3ft @ 10.5s ENE Surfline: 2-3ft (Thigh to stomach) Foil rating: NO-GO
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ GEAR Kite: Size to gusts β unusable conditions Mast: 72cm Board: NF Pro 4β2β Tide during session: 0.26-0.49m π Waning Crescent (45%) β Rise: 01:19 / Set: 12:06 Neap tides β Last Quarter 2d ago. Smaller tidal range.
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3-DAY
Thu MAR 12 π΄ 6.8kts π§
Fri MAR 13 π΄ 19.5kts π§
Sat MAR 14 π΄ 20.3kts π§
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ WATCH Major low pressure system approaching β 994.5 hPa arriving in 60h Storm timeline: Heavy rain Thu-Sat (31mm total) iK-TRRM shows brief 13kt window 2-4pm today before storm 87Β° wind rotation creating extreme S-direction shadow New NW swell 2.7m detected at outer buoys
Session Analysis: Kona low approaching has killed the trades. Current S wind at 185Β° is the worst possible direction for Kanaha β directly behind the shoreline. The iK-TRRM model shows a brief window of 13kts from 2-4pm, but with extreme gustiness (1.67x ratio) and wrong direction. This is pre-storm chaos wind, not organized flow.
The next 3 days are full storm conditions with heavy rain. Todayβs marginal window is the last chance before the system arrives, but conditions are barely rideable even for experts.